This professor’s “keys” are THE most important factors in making the call. I’ve been studying “election science” for decades.

Forget polls. Forget pundits. There are key factors in how a majority of voters determine who they want to vote for. This method is sound because it is both fluid and definitive. If you want to see key factors in the coming presidential election, this is for you!

Welcome to the methodology of Allan Lichtman, distinguished professor of history at American University. He has accurately predicted the winner of the past 10 presidential elections including two which were stolen.

From his Wikipedia page, something I’ve maintained for years. The size of rallies, the bluff and bluster, the polls and the chatter do not matter. It’s all about voter satisfaction with the government. However, I may write to Professor Lichtman and offer him a 14th key: “Does the challenger have a criminal record?”

From the content of the system, Lichtman says voters select the next president mainly on how they feel the incumbent president has governed the country. If the voters are satisfied with the condition of the country, they will re-elect the incumbent president or the nominee of the incumbent party, but if they are dissatisfied, they will transfer the presidency to the challenging party. Lichtman has said that election campaigns have little if any meaningful effect on voters, who are pragmatic and are not swayed by the spectacle of campaigning, voting retrospectively rather than prospectively….

The Thirteen Keys

The Keys to the White House is a checklist of thirteen true/false statements that pertain to the circumstances surrounding a presidential election. When five or fewer of the following statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the election. When six or more are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose.[7]

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

So Biden has 2, 3, 4, 5, and 9 right now. He needs 3 more to win. I give him #4 because increasingly RFK Jr.’s campaign is being sabotaged by republicans fearing he’ll draw votes from them and not dems. The schism in the republican party between the libertarians and the cultists will never be healed. Many libertarians would never vote for the republican currently running from jail and for office.

That leaves #1, #12 and #13 to the out party, since “Charismatic” is not a word you would ever associate with Joe Biden. (Except maybe “Dark Brandon,” who has a massive fan club of his own. I’m not kidding.)

That leaves 5 other keys to be determined, though it looks like he’s only favored to prevail in #8, #10, and #11. That will still make him a winner, especially given the likely increase in women voting for dems because of the abortion issue and the major advantage Dems have in quite a few House races in districts now held by repubs. That effectively brings #1 back into the Biden score.

#6: There is a distorted negative view of the long term economy which likely won’t change in the next 6 months. Mostly Americans know nothing about the long term economy and the parties run on slogans. One party’s drumbeat of doom and gloom on the economy for the past 45 years hasn’t helped. Of course the long term economy’s as healthy as it can be at the end game of predatory vulture capitalism where obscene corporate profits are killing the quality of life for most people. However, Biden has an advantage as he definitely has a healthy short term economy (#5.)

#7: The House is now in such disarray that it will allow no major policy changes to help Americans. However, this may favor democrats and hurt republicans since it looks like they cannot govern. I actually expect the House to flip Dem this November.

#8: Currently looking bad for the administration. This is fluid, as any positive development in either the Middle East or Ukraine will bring benefit to the administration. Which is why getting the aid to Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan, and border security has been a key strategy to turn a negative to a positive.

#10/#11: These are also fluid. A potential failure was headed off by the aid package. A potential success was made possible by the aid package. These two are difficult for anyone to manage, since foreign military successes and failures usually have a life of their own and too many variables beyond the control of who is in the White House.

Anyway, here’s 5 minutes of Dr. Lichtman which can give you a lifetime of insights.

Laura Coates Interviews Allan Lichtman on the 2024 Presidential election.

Reprinted on crystalwind.ca with written permission from Robert Wilkinson. Copying this article to other blogs is strictly prohibited. It is copyright protected. 

© Copyright 2024 Robert Wilkinson

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