•  
A+ A A-

2024 Election Prediction: Shocking Insights from Allan Lichtman!

2024 Election Prediction: Shocking Insights from Allan Lichtman!

This professor’s “keys” are THE most important factors in making the call. I’ve been studying “election science” for decades.

Forget polls. Forget pundits. There are key factors in how a majority of voters determine who they want to vote for. This method is sound because it is both fluid and definitive. If you want to see key factors in the coming presidential election, this is for you!

Welcome to the methodology of Allan Lichtman, distinguished professor of history at American University. He has accurately predicted the winner of the past 10 presidential elections including two which were stolen.

From his Wikipedia page, something I’ve maintained for years. The size of rallies, the bluff and bluster, the polls and the chatter do not matter. It’s all about voter satisfaction with the government. However, I may write to Professor Lichtman and offer him a 14th key: “Does the challenger have a criminal record?”

From the content of the system, Lichtman says voters select the next president mainly on how they feel the incumbent president has governed the country. If the voters are satisfied with the condition of the country, they will re-elect the incumbent president or the nominee of the incumbent party, but if they are dissatisfied, they will transfer the presidency to the challenging party. Lichtman has said that election campaigns have little if any meaningful effect on voters, who are pragmatic and are not swayed by the spectacle of campaigning, voting retrospectively rather than prospectively….

The Thirteen Keys

The Keys to the White House is a checklist of thirteen true/false statements that pertain to the circumstances surrounding a presidential election. When five or fewer of the following statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the election. When six or more are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose.[7]

  1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
  2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
  3. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
  4. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
  5. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
  6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
  7. Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
  8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
  9. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
  10. No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
  11. Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
  12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
  13. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

So Biden has 2, 3, 4, 5, and 9 right now. He needs 3 more to win. I give him #4 because increasingly RFK Jr.’s campaign is being sabotaged by republicans fearing he’ll draw votes from them and not dems. The schism in the republican party between the libertarians and the cultists will never be healed. Many libertarians would never vote for the republican currently running from jail and for office.

That leaves #1, #12 and #13 to the out party, since “Charismatic” is not a word you would ever associate with Joe Biden. (Except maybe “Dark Brandon,” who has a massive fan club of his own. I’m not kidding.)

That leaves 5 other keys to be determined, though it looks like he’s only favored to prevail in #8, #10, and #11. That will still make him a winner, especially given the likely increase in women voting for dems because of the abortion issue and the major advantage Dems have in quite a few House races in districts now held by repubs. That effectively brings #1 back into the Biden score.

#6: There is a distorted negative view of the long term economy which likely won’t change in the next 6 months. Mostly Americans know nothing about the long term economy and the parties run on slogans. One party’s drumbeat of doom and gloom on the economy for the past 45 years hasn’t helped. Of course the long term economy’s as healthy as it can be at the end game of predatory vulture capitalism where obscene corporate profits are killing the quality of life for most people. However, Biden has an advantage as he definitely has a healthy short term economy (#5.)

#7: The House is now in such disarray that it will allow no major policy changes to help Americans. However, this may favor democrats and hurt republicans since it looks like they cannot govern. I actually expect the House to flip Dem this November.

#8: Currently looking bad for the administration. This is fluid, as any positive development in either the Middle East or Ukraine will bring benefit to the administration. Which is why getting the aid to Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan, and border security has been a key strategy to turn a negative to a positive.

#10/#11: These are also fluid. A potential failure was headed off by the aid package. A potential success was made possible by the aid package. These two are difficult for anyone to manage, since foreign military successes and failures usually have a life of their own and too many variables beyond the control of who is in the White House.

Anyway, here’s 5 minutes of Dr. Lichtman which can give you a lifetime of insights.

Laura Coates Interviews Allan Lichtman on the 2024 Presidential election.


Reprinted on crystalwind.ca with written permission from Robert Wilkinson. Copying this article to other blogs is strictly prohibited. It is copyright protected. 

© Copyright 2024 Robert Wilkinson


Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article, as reposted on CrystalWind.ca, belong solely to the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of CrystalWind.ca or any individuals associated with the organization. Any content provided by our bloggers or authors is strictly their opinion and is not meant to disparage any religion, ethnic group, club, organization, political party, company, individual, or any other entity. Readers are advised to exercise discretion and not consider this content as absolute truth.

Credit

© Copyright 2024 Robert Wilkinson - https://www.aquariuspapers.com

About the author:

Robert wilkinson An internationally-known astrologer, author, public speaker, metaphysician, and futurist, with over 25 years experience as a counselor and educator. He has presented hundreds of public talks on all aspects of Astrology, the Eastern Wisdom tradition, the Western Wisdom tradition and promoted many mass gatherings and cultural events. Some of his specific areas of interest and expertise include personality profiles, degree patterns, integrative astrology, various aspect harmonics, among others.
Source Here

I want to welcome all to drop by our Facebook page at Astrology Arizona and join the social media initiative going on there. Please feel free to contribute a topic, ask about a topic, or anything else related to our new group. See you over there!

Reprinted on crystalwind.cawith written persmission from Robert Wilkinson.

 

Pin It

Liked this article? Dive deeper into personal growth and wellness! Check out CrystalWind.ca for spiritual wisdom or explore AromaWorx.ca for natural well-being tips. Spread the positivity—share this with friends on their happiness journey!

Let’s Chat! Drop Your Thoughts Below! Scroll down to comment

Keep CrystalWind.ca free—your gift matters now!
Help us spread light today. Thank you, supporters!

Follow this blog

Featured Writers

Thank You for Visiting CrystalWind!

We’re honored to be part of your journey.

Share your thoughts at .

Let’s grow together!

The Crystal Wind Oracle App
Shatter Illusions – Gain Clarity Now!
Instant Access On:
Apple | Android | Amazon
New! 53-Card Deck for Deeper Wisdom

Imagine a world of inspiration and healing, free for all—made possible by YOU!
Donate Now—Ignite the Magic at CrystalWind.ca!

Support CrystalWind.ca Today!

Unlock Your Light: Join Lightworkers Worldwide on CrystalWind.ca!

Call For Writers

Call For Writers!

Follow Us!

 

Who is Online Now

We have 25137 guests and no members online

Featured This Month

Page:

Bloodstone

Bloodstone

The Blood Energizer Stone The combined colours of bloodstone allow it to fu... Read more

Birth Totem Falcon: Are You a Natural Leader…

Birth Totem Falcon: Are You a Natural Leader?

Birth Totem Falcon Birth dates: March 21 – April 19 Birth Totem is: Falcon... Read more

The Crystal Wind Oracle Card Deck

The Crystal Wind Oracle Card Deck

The Crystal Wind Oracle™ The Crystal Wind Oracle Myth & Magic Card D... Read more

Budding Trees Moon: Medicine Wheel Insights!

Budding Trees Moon: Medicine Wheel Insights!

Red Hawk - Fire Opal - Dandelion - Yellow March 21 – April 19 The Budding Tr... Read more

The Time of No Time: Beltane!

The Time of No Time: Beltane!

Around the medicine wheel of life we go, from season to season (solstice to ... Read more

Aries Mythology: Discover the Secrets

Aries Mythology: Discover the Secrets

The Mythology of Aries When we dive into the mythology of Aries, we need to... Read more

Green Aventurine

Green Aventurine

The Emotional Balancer Stone Green Aventurine is perhaps the best balancing... Read more

Diamond

Diamond

The King of all Stones The diamond symbolizes wisdom and enlightenment, pur... Read more

Sun in Aries: Unleash Your Power!

Sun in Aries: Unleash Your Power!

Aries March 21 through April 20 An Overview of Sun Sign Characteristics for A... Read more

Hematite

Hematite

The Grounding Stone With its iron content, hematite has a strengthening inf... Read more

Aries

Aries

ARIES Mar 21 - Apr 20 Spirit: Adventurous, courageous Read more

Dandelion: The Surprising Power of this Medi…

Dandelion: The Surprising Power of this Medicine Wheel Plant!

Reminds you of the abundance life holds. Gender: Masculine Planet: Jupiter E... Read more

Bright Beltane Blessings!

Bright Beltane Blessings!

The wheel turns to Beltane, also known as Mayday, marking the beginning of S... Read more

Eudialyte: Your Aries Power Stone Revealed!

Eudialyte: Your Aries Power Stone Revealed!

Eudialyte Birthstone: Aries Planet: Mars Element: Fire Chakra: Heart Eud... Read more

Beltane

Beltane

Beltane Ritual Celebrated May 1st Beltane is also known as May Day, Walpurg... Read more

 

 

X

Right Click

No right click